Historical past Factors to an Upset within the Cotillion Stakes

The $1 million Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing has risen to prominence in recent times because of its wealthy purse and ideal positioning six weeks out from the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The 1 1/16-mile race serves as a possibility for three-year-old fillies to compete towards their very own age group earlier than going through older rivals within the Breeders’ Cup.

The Cotillion commonly attracts a top-class subject, however take observe, it’s not unusual for essentially the most completed entrant to fall to defeat. The Cotillion is contested pretty late within the racing season, following a busy winter/spring centered on the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks and a spring/summer season of prestigious prizes at Belmont Park and Saratoga. By the point you get to September, completed runners from earlier within the season might be susceptible towards proficient up-and-comers in red-hot type, particularly if the completed runners are hoping to depart one thing within the tank for the Breeders’ Cup.

Current editions of the Cotillion vividly illustrate this level. In 2017, Kentucky Oaks winner Abel Tasman began because the 4-5 favourite, however was crushed by the enhancing It Tiz Properly. In 2018, Kentucky Oaks winner Monomoy Lady crossed the end line first within the Cotillion however was disqualified and positioned second for interfering with the next yr’s champion older dust feminine Midnight Bisou. In 2019, the Cotillion featured Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, champion two-year-old filly Jaywalk, and two-time Grade 1 winner Guarana, however all had been crushed by longshot Avenue Band. Final yr, Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath completed third behind runaway Grade 3 Charles City Oaks winner, Society.

Will we see a equally shocking consequence unfold within the 2023 Cotillion? It’s not out of the query. The morning line favourite is #3 Fairly Mischievous (2-1), a five-time stakes winner with three consecutive Grade 1 victories underneath her belt. Within the Kentucky Oaks, she began as a 10-1 longshot, however overcame a large journey from the far outdoors publish place to prevail by a neck. She subsequently added the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes offered by Nice Jones Distilling Co. at Belmont Park and the Grade 1 Check Stakes at Saratoga to her embellished resume.

Fairly Mischievous has been busy since final winter, and it’s truthful to query the caliber of competitors she’s defeated in latest begins. Kentucky Oaks runner-up Playing Lady subsequently completed third within the Grade 1 Teaching Membership American Oaks and fifth within the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes offered by Keeneland Gross sales. Kentucky Oaks third-place finisher The Alys Look returned to complete sixth within the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks. Dorth Vader, fifth within the Kentucky Oaks and second by a head within the Acorn, got here again to complete fourth within the Check. Check runner-up Clearly Unhinged had beforehand completed fourth in her solely different graded stakes look, the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. Fairly Mischievous truly wasn’t even going to win the Check till destiny stepped in when main Maple Leaf Mel fell close to the wire.

There’s no knocking the general accomplishments of Fairly Mischievous, who’s properly on her option to being voted champion three-year-old filly of 2023, however latest historical past suggests {that a} Kentucky Oaks winner coming towards the tip of a busy season isn’t the very best guess within the Cotillion, and this — coupled with the questionable type of the fillies Fairly Mischievous has crushed — factors to the potential for an upset.

So, who can defeat Fairly Mischievous? Some bettors would possibly go for Grade 1 Central Financial institution Ashland Stakes winner #7 Defining Goal (4-1), who bounced again from a subpar seventh-place end within the Kentucky Oaks to win the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and place third within the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes. Others would possibly go for #5 Occult (6-1), the Acorn third-place finisher who subsequently dropped at school to win the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks by 10 1/4 lengths.

We’re going to go in a totally totally different path and favor a filly who has but to face Fairly Mischievous. That might be the California raider #2 Ceiling Crusher (5-1), who gained 4 of her first 5 begins towards California-bred rivals (together with a pair of stakes by 15 lengths or extra) earlier than stepping up towards non-state-restricted competitors within the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes at Del Mar three weeks in the past.

Ceiling Crusher was sturdy within the Torrey Pines. After dashing to the lead from the skin publish place in a subject of eight, the Doug O’Neill trainee widened her benefit down the homestretch to prevail by six lengths over Sunland Park Oaks winner Flying Connection, the sixth-place finisher from the Kentucky Oaks. Ending third was Desi Arnaz Stakes winner Justique, who has positioned a number of instances on the graded stakes stage.

It’s value noting, Ceiling Crusher has run as quick as Fairly Mischievous on the Brisnet Pace ranking scale. Whereas the three highest numbers belonging to Fairly Mischievous are 99, 98, and 96, Ceiling Crusher boasts numbers of 99, 98, and 95. If the morning line odds maintain up, the opportunity of getting 5-1 odds on Ceiling Crusher as an alternative of 2-1 odds on Fairly Mischievous is attractive.

Let’s guess the Cotillion accordingly. A win guess on Ceiling Crusher is the way in which to go, and in the event you’re feeling daring, you possibly can spend a bit extra money to pursue a higher-paying trifecta utilizing Fairly Mischievous, Defining Goal, Occult, and Saratoga allowance non-compulsory claiming winner #6 Simply Katherine (12-1).

            Wagering Technique on a $10 Price range

            $10 to win on #2 Ceiling Crusher

            What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, twelfth race, $10 to win on 2

            Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range

            $15 to win on #2 Ceiling Crusher

            What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, twelfth race, $15 to win on 2

            $3 trifecta: 2 with 3 with 5,6,7 ($9)

            What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, twelfth race, $3 trifecta 2 with 3 with 5,6,7

            $2 trifecta: 2 with 5,6,7 with 3 ($6)

            What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, twelfth race, $2 trifecta 2 with 5,6,7 with 3

            Good luck and benefit from the race!