Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/23

Jason N: Snell about to get CY award #2, however I’ve by no means seen him in a HoF dialogue.  His awards will likely be fairly far aside (about 5 years).  Is that this unprecedented to have a participant with some far aside peak years however little or no in between?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s largely fairly early to entertain a severe Corridor of Fame dialogue about any starter past the massive 4 (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke) and Cole, and that goes for Snell, who hasn’t even reached 1,000 innings (he’s at 992.2. The form of his profession so far is uncommon in that his two Cy-Caliber seasons account for about 63% of his 21.1 profession bWAR; his third-best season by that measure was final 12 months, value simply 2.1 WAR. I’m unsure I can discover a good parallel offhand, in that even two-time CY winner Denny McClain had a 4.6-WAR season in 1965, three years earlier than the primary of his back-to-back awards. However amongst HOFers, Jim Kaat going 11 seasons between 5.0-WAR years (1962 and ’74) stands out, although he had some with 4+ WAR in that span

Fletcher: After the Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke group is inducted, how lengthy will it’s till the author’s elect one other SP? Do you assume somebody like Cole will get severe traction or will the diminished workloads be an excessive amount of of a barrier?

Jay Jaffe: I believe Cole can have severe traction if he stays wholesome. Good probability to achieve each 200 wins and three,000 strikeouts (he’s at 144 and a pair of,147 now). It’s who comes after that that’s the query.

KC Ache: Will the Orioles have sufficient room for all their potential banging on the door within the minors or will they must make a transfer or two?

Jay Jaffe: This stuff have a means of working themselves out, as we noticed with Jorge Mateo cooling off after a scorching begin and yielding SS to Gunnar Henderson. It wouldn’t shock me in the event that they commerce one or each of their nook outfielders to start out making some room, and that i wouldn’t be shocked if Adam Frazier departs through free company

Smiling Politely: I used to be the man questioning how Kershaw may preserve doing this final week, you rightly advised me to pump the brakes, and this week: one other 5 innings the place he by no means topped 89 and one other 5 scoreless. Nice pitchers are nice for a purpose, however it was extra nerve-racking to observe than artful or fulfilling (the walks…). Can he pull this off within the playoffs in opposition to a very good hitting group?

Jay Jaffe: Between the diminished stuff and the continuing well being questions, I believe each begin from Kershaw goes to be a nailbiter and, together with his 2024 standing up within the air, slightly emotionally charged. That’s going to be very true if he’s going through a group just like the Braves, which has sufficient righties to pound him into oblivion. Buckle up.

Morlock Jimenez: Are you able to consider any Corridor of Famers who’ve truly benefited from the Character Clause?

Jay Jaffe: For The Cooperstown Casebook I did an intensive search and will solely unearth a small handful of examples of the character clause even being mentiond, although they had been typically in a optimistic method, generally earnestly (Harry Heilman, Mel Ott, Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Sandy Koufax) and generally tongue-in-cheek (Dizzy Dean and Yogi Berra).

Jay Jaffe: The one one elected after the amplification of the clause through the PED guys — which started when McGwire hit the poll in 2007 — was Hodges, and that was by committee, however given the amalgamation of his credentials together with managing the Mets to a championship, i believe it’s protected to imagine character entered the dialogue

mac: what’s michael king’s ceiling if he can maintain up bodily on a starter’s workload?

Sirras: Which division has shocked you essentially the most this 12 months? The least?

Jay Jaffe: Most likely the AL East given the sudden rise of the Orioles and drop of the Yankees

Lorenzo: How a lot of a shot does Senga have at ROY?  I get why Carroll is the favourite, however Senga is certainly one of 4 starters in MLB with an ERA underneath 3.00 and has solely gotten higher because the season has progressed.  Carroll is superior however 20/20+ in 2023 will not be an unusual factor (17 gamers).  Who ought to be the ROY in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: I’d name Senga a longshot however assume he’ll get consideration each there and within the Cy Younger voting. Carroll didn’t simply go 20-20, he’s the primary rookie to go 25-50, and up till his shoulder points in early July was no less than talked about in MVP discussions.

Andrew: Is Kyle Bradish underrated?

Jay Jaffe: Most likely. He’s prime 10 in MLB in each ERA and FIP, with simply quantity protecting him out of the WAR prime 10. Some postseason publicity will definitely increase his profile.

Nate: Do you assume all three of Cabrera, Greinke and Votto retire after this season?  If that’s the case, how do you assume they’ll do the primary time all of them the hit the poll collectively?

Jay Jaffe: Cabrera is a certainty, I don’t assume it’s sure both Votto or Greinke will however it wouldn’t shock me. Numerous what is going to occur on the poll will rely on the holdovers, particularly if any person is shut, and that may have a multiyear ripple impact – ask me in January! If I needed to guess now I’d say Cabrera excessive 90s, Greinke low-to-mid 90s, Votto probably as excessive as 90s however possibly a bit extra susceptible based mostly on the competitors for ballots as a result of he doesn’t have trad counting stats  which might be as robust.

Bruce: Why does FanGraphs give tenths of a p.c in its playoff odd predictions? Is that diploma of accuracy justified by the mannequin, or is it simply “for enjoyable”?

Jay Jaffe: I believe they’re largely only for enjoyable and we wouldn’t lose a lot simply rounding to the closest entire quantity, however we do run 20,000 simulations of the complete 162-game schedule. it’s useful to see the decimal when odds get actually low, vital digits, blah blah blah.

Nate: Along with the intense HOF contenders (Cabrera, Greinke, Votto), are there others that might retire this offseason that might linger on the poll for just a few years?  Nelson Cruz?  Wainwright?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume Cruz will linger as he’s obtained the PED suspension. Wainwright doesn’t even have the quantity of a Buehrle or a Hudson. I like Longoria much more from a JAWS standpoint but when he finishes in need of 2,000 hits I don’t assume he’ll linger lengthy both.

Nate: Which groups, moreover the Braves, appear like robust World Sequence contenders to you?

Jay Jaffe: For all of their September issues I nonetheless just like the Astros’ probabilities when you shorten their rotation. Orioles and Rays stand out as properly. Dodgers possibly. However all of them have at finest about 1/4 to 1/2 the chances of the Braves do of successful.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Am I loopy for considering J-Hey could also be a QO candidate?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that’s loopy. He’s had a really good season and the Dodgers in all probability need him again, however tying a QO to him is an uncool option to do it as a result of it may hamstring his market.

KC Ache: Keston Hiura….I do know AAAA man…..however how come he cant get a shot someplace?  Im positive he may very well be traded for some baseball playing cards and batting helmets. Simply turned 27…

Jay Jaffe: Appears fairly clear the Brewers have given up on him as a result of they had been so weak at DH (twenty ninth with an 82 wRC+) but by no means introduced him up and even restored him to the 40-man roster. I’d guess he results in one other group subsequent season

Matt VW: I’m interested by the worth of Mookie’s shuttling between the infield and the outfield. He’s positively a uncommon athlete however I’m questioning if there’s untapped potential in different gamers who may carry out equally if wanted. Do you assume solely Mookie’s doing it as a result of solely Mookie can do it, or do you assume groups are overly conservative in estimating their very own gamers’ potential for positional versatility?

Jay Jaffe: There are in all probability others who can do it however groups are inherently conservative and gamers like the knowledge of their roles. Even amongst these, not all people has the arrogance and work ethic to make such a transfer work. Mookie was as much as the problem, although, and it’s been a sight to behold

Greg: Will Davis Schneider get one other hit in MLB? Will it occur in 2023?

Jay Jaffe: Good lord, what a brutal regression he’s suffered.

Jay Jaffe: for the document, I do assume he’ll get one other hit this 12 months however … i’ll pull up the spotlight movie when it does, I’m unsure I may bear to observe

glt4dc: There could also be nothing extra futile and inane than elevating a Supervisor of the 12 months query…however right here we go.  I’ve heard subsequent to no point out of Phillies supervisor Rob Thomson for NL MOY.  I’m partisan as a Phillies fan however I don’t perceive why he will get no consideration (once more).  Again-to-back playoff appearances and overcoming sluggish begins in 2022 and 2023 with an imperfect roster ought to register with MOY voters, proper?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume many citizens assume by way of bringing final 12 months into the equation besides that MOY tends to contain grading on a curve relative to expectations, and a reigning league champion thus enters the season with greater ones no matter how they obtained to the dance the 12 months earlier than. So I don’t know that I’d anticipate him to get a ton of assist, however he’ll be within the dialogue as will Snitker, Roberts, Counsell, possibly even Schumaker.

Reds Enjoyer: Hey Jay. Thanks for all of the chats this season. With this probably being Votto’s final season, many are speaking about his Corridor of Fame candidacy. Everybody appears to agree that he’s a HoFer (outdoors of some counting stats weirdos) however I’m seeing lots of people say he’s “not a primary poll man”. Have you learnt if there are literally HOF voters who imagine a man is worthy however gained’t vote for him at first as a result of they don’t imagine he’s worthy of creating it on the primary poll?

Jay Jaffe: I believe there are some who assume that means however they’re lowering in quantity over time. I believe what lots of people imply once they say they’re unsure if somebody’s a first-ballot man is that “I’m going to wish some convincing,” which isn’t totally unfair.

Greg: Vida Blue is one of the best instance that I may consider off the highest of my head. Seems to be like an affordable reply.

Jay Jaffe: I assume that is pertaining to the Snell query, however Blue had three large (5+ WAR) seasons after his epic 9-WAR 1971 — they got here 5, seven, and 9 years later. Had some hassle recovering from 1971 attributable to workload and the fallout from his holdout.

Coolio: Do you see Beli getting a 12 12 months deal or one thing like different star abilities in current offseasons? Does he have leverage to demand extra as a result of very lackluster class of FAs this 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: No. His profession has been far too risky to benefit that lengthy a deal, and he’s properly forward of his Statcast x-numbers as well. I believe he’ll be high quality, with one thing within the 4-5 12 months vary.

Visitor: If Jacob deGrom will not be ready so as to add meaningfully to his HoF case he very possible doesn’t make it (a la Johan Santana). Nevertheless, somebody like Billy Wagner sits on the cusp of getting the decision. It appears like this distinction utterly revolves round treating relievers as a separate place, and I’ve a tricky time reconciling that. What do you assume? Settle for and transfer on?

Jay Jaffe: sure. I perceive why it chafes some folks {that a} man with a workload half to one-third the scale of a reasonably good starter will get in whereas the starter doesn’t, however the entire sport has been rebuilt round elite relievers to some extent, and voters have chosen to acknowledge it. I can’t get too labored up in opposition to it, and if/when Wagner will get in, I’ll be fairly completely happy for him.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Kevin Acee from the SD Union Tribune wrote that the Pads are “out of compliance with MLB laws relating to their debt service ratio.” First time I’ve heard of this rule. Have you learnt any extra?

Jay Jaffe: IIRC it obtained talked about extra through the Selig period. Since we’re not aware of the books of any groups (besides the Braves, whose funds are public) it appears to be selectively enforced, a way for the commissioner to warn a group to curb its spending. Got here up a bit w/r/t McCourt I believe.

Visitor: I dont know in case you are the correct man to ask however is it doable to get a peek into the Stuff+ breakdowns that you simply did for Hunter Brown. Taking a look at his innings, he’s 24.2 over final years numbers (together with playoffs) which tracks properly with the tanking of his stuff metrics. Is that this a standard prevalence amongst pitchers constructing as much as a seasons full workload over the previous few years?

Elbow Macaroni: The Cardinals have the very same downside that they had final offseason, which they didn’t handle, and appear poised to not handle it once more.  They should pay Nola and Snell and a flyer or two like Thor simply to have a CHANCE subsequent 12 months.  Proper?

Jay Jaffe: The Cardinals have lengthy favored contact-centric varieties who ideally would thrive in entrance of a robust protection over pure stuff guys who miss bats. They in all probability have to be large gamers in free company however their historic aversion to the deep finish of the pool gained’t assist. I’m unsure Nola and Snell are notably nice horses to guess on both, actually don’t just like the development arrows on the previous.

Marcus: If Trout had been a free agent would he get roughly than the 7/248M he’s owed on that contract?

Jay Jaffe: Much less, as a result of sturdiness points.

Insert Witty Title Right here: Noticed a sport on TV not too long ago that eliminated the strike zone field on the TV and it was a lot extra fulfilling. Do you agreed and/or do you assume MLB ought to begin offering extra customizable choices for watching video games?

Jay Jaffe: It will be good if the viewer may toggle the zone field on or off. Might do it with streaming, no less than theoretically, however I believe you’d want a separate channel to do it over the air

WinTwins0410: Jay, relating to the Corridor of Fame, how do you concentrate on one thing that Invoice James wrote the opposite day (https://docs.google.com/doc/d/1UKSmD_RglQYAW3c6Z6-xyB5VNWzrw5eCkD…), through which Invoice asserted that the true downside with the Corridor will not be that it has no greater degree, however that it has no decrease degree?  James wrote that “the truth that THERE IS NO SUCH HONOR” (for Corridor of Very Good-type gamers) “forces folks to argue that Johnny Damon is a Corridor of Famer or Thurman Munson is a Corridor of Famer or Omar Vizquel is a Corridor of Famer, as a result of that’s all there may be.”  Invoice additionally made an alternate (and complex) proposal at that hyperlink in regards to the thought of a 10-level Corridor of Fame.  Curious what you concentrate on that notion as properly.  (I gained’t ask you what you consider Invoice calling Dave Stieb “half-qualified,” as a result of I already know and agree along with your view on Stieb’s Corridor-worthiness.)

Jay Jaffe: I did see Invoice point out this on Twitter awhile again however haven’t learn the entire thing. At first look it’s an fascinating thought however I’m positive it’s one thing the Corridor would by no means go for, as it is rather protecting of its membership and would reject the notion that anybody is a lower-tier HOFer (ask the man whose guide in regards to the Corridor of Fame was by no means offered on the Corridor of Fame).

Harry Ft: I might really feel superb sending every of the Brewers starters on the market in a playoff sport.  How a lot does that actually matter for postseason v. common?

Jay Jaffe: I’m unsure *your* emotions about every Brewers starter matter  😉 however the Brewers do have an excellent entrance 4 for his or her rotation. Sadly for them, so do plenty of different groups, and even those that don’t have a lot deeper offenses.

Child Billy’s Bible Bonkers: How will mlb historians view Kyle Schwarber’s 2023 season 50 years from now?  A one-off or the brand new norm?

Jay Jaffe: Seasons like Schwarber’s are nonetheless fairly anomalous. Even when we increase the batting common bar to .220 there have been solely half a dozen seasons with such a low common and 40+ homers, all up to now 12 seasons:

Jay Jaffe:

Scott: Why Moreno announce he was promoting the Angels, then change his thoughts? Or did I dream that occurred?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he thought there was an Ohtani windfall to be reaped.

Bryzzo: Would Ohtani have a shot on the HOF as both simply the pitcher or simply the hitter? Which do you assume is the higher risk?

Jay Jaffe: Hitter extra possible simply as a result of attrition charge of pitchers, however he’d must take up a place if he had been solely a one-way participant.

matt w: Chris Sale appeared like he was on the HoF path till he obtained harm. Do you assume there’s something he can do to revive his probabilities? Will we see extra beginning pitchers get off to superb begins till their arm breaks, and do you assume this may have an effect on future Corridor voters’ considering?

Jay Jaffe: pitch extra innings and pitch higher whereas doing so, however obv that’s simpler mentioned than executed. The very fact is that he’s now gone 4 straight seasons with lower than 100 innings and that’s the dying knell for a candidacy.

I’d hope over time that voters change into extra appreciative of the Johan Santana/David Cone/Dave Stieb varieties as a result of pitching attrition charges are so excessive and quantity so onerous to achieve, however it’s going to be awhile but earlier than they get one other take a look at case to see if there’s been a philosophical shift. Santana’s wasn’t actually a good battle attributable to how crowded the poll was.

Dave: For those who had the ability, what group that isn’t making the playoffs this season would you wish to add and why?

Jay Jaffe: Mariners. I’ve relations on either side within the Seattle space — my uncle Harold was an usher on the Diamond Membership there in his retirement years — and I simply cringe a bit once they get so shut however fall quick.

David: For those who had an nl mvp vote who would you vote for?

Jay Jaffe: Even in any case of that, I’m nonetheless torn, which was the purpose of the article. Is likely to be 50.0001% to 49.9999% for Acuña however it’s shut

Visitor: How do waiver pickups work for gamers on multiyear contracts?  I’m considering of Aaron Hicks – he nonetheless has two extra years left on his Yankee contract.  Do the Orioles routinely get to maintain him for the following two years solely paying the minimal wage? (which I believe comes out of what the Yankees pay)  Or is he a free agent this offseason and might signal with any group who can pay the him the minimal once more?  And a group can theoretically signal him to a contract greater than his Yankees deal, which might let the Yankees off the hook (I do know nobody can be that silly.)

Jay Jaffe: Hicks will likely be a free agent on the finish of the season and might signal the place he chooses. The Yankees nonetheless owe him one other $21 million by 2025 minus the minimal wage.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: J-Hey’s QO. Joc in 2022: .274/.353/.521 in 433 PA with no protection.
J-Hey in 2023: .268/.343/.482 in 356 PA with plus protection.
Is it THAT loopy?

Jay Jaffe: Joc was 3 years youthful when he obtained his QO.

Retired WFT Fan: Hello Jay, simply wished to say due to you and all of the FG workers for one more [regular] season of chats!

1. what do you do with the unanswered questions?
2. what ratio of questions do you often end up answering?

Jay Jaffe: Some unanswered questions flip into article matters. I probalby solely get to about 25% of the questions folks ask, and possibly solely half of those I’d wish to reply, however generally extra thought is required than the 1-2 minutes I can commit to a reply.

Jay Jaffe: okay people, i’ve run out of time right here. Thanks a lot for stopping by. Unsure but what subsequent week’s schedule holds with the playoffs starting on Tuesday; it’s extra possible I’m a part of a gaggle chat subsequent week than a person one.